From One Yankee Fan to Another: R-E-L-A-X
The Yankees have been a difficult watch for more than a month now. By going 10-15 in their last 25 games, and with below .500 play starting well before that, fans and media are starting to stir. Twitter GMs are clamoring for Miguel Andujar and Estevan Florial to have regular roles on the major league roster. Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt are receiving equal advocacy for promotions from AAA. And as always, final frustrations are pointed at General Manager Brian Cashman and Owner Hal Steinbrenner for not putting forth the best effort to win.
This time, at least, we’re wrong.
The Yankees’ collective of mid-season moves, and lack thereof, have fully been to satisfy fans’ thirst for their first championship since 2009. Let me explain:
“Miguel Andujar and Estevan Florial need to be in the major leagues”
Both players are having fantastic seasons in AAA, but promoting either reduces the Yankees’ chances at winning their 28th ring. Since Andujar’s big rookie season four years ago (!), he has a .582 OPS and 58 wRC+ in almost 100 major league games. To put into perspective how bad that is, Joey Gallo had a .621 OPS and an 82 wRC+ this season as a Yankee before being run out of town with torches and pitchforks. When the cost is DFA’ing versatile veterans like Aaron Hicks or Marwin Gonzalez, I doubt the potential upside is worth the risk of that offensive production paired with Andujar’s defensive limitations. While Florial provides more mystery, the same theory applies. If you let go of Marwin, and Andujar/Florial struggle in their opportunities, there’s no going back. Blink twice and now Tyler Wade is the utility man in October.
Matt Carpenter’s new injury may provide fans the opportunity to see more of Andujar anyways. However, once Stanton returns from the IL, the same logic will return as well.
“Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt pitching in AAA isn’t the Yankees’ best effort”
There’s no denying Marinaccio has been one of the eight best relievers for New York this year, and seeing him demoted undeniably stings. But to everyone full of piss and vinegar at his demotion, I ask one simple question: who would you have let go of instead? Marinaccio and Schmidt were the only Yankee relievers with options to spare besides Jonathan Loaisiga, whose elite 2021 has probably earned him some wiggle room. Therefore, keeping Marinaccio on the roster means having to DFA someone like Albert Abreu or Lucas Luetge, both sporting a sub-3.00 ERA with more than 2 years of club control remaining. Had someone in the bullpen been struggling mightily, the equation may be different. However, Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman are the only current Yankee relievers with ERAs above 3.00.
Dig a little deeper and you’ll find the active Yankee relievers with the lowest FIPs (a metric designed to evaluate the true performance of a pitcher, independent of defense) are Clay Holmes and …drumroll… Albert Abreu and Lucas Luetge. No matter which metrics you choose to obey, Abreu and Luetge are too valuable to simply release.
The Yankees are playing to take everything home this year, and believe it or not, stashing Marinaccio in AAA abides by that notion. Had the Yankees chosen to DFA Abreu for Marinaccio, they would be one injury away from hosting Ryan Weber or Shane Greene in the bullpen as we approached October. If everyone stays healthy in August and September, the Yankees will have the ability to place the best 8 or 9 relievers on the postseason roster, and that will include Marinaccio.
“Per usual, the Yankees refused to make the upgrades they needed to win it all”
I can’t believe this is a thing. The Yankees added the second best pitcher available at the trade deadline, arguably the best reliever, another former top reliever that’s a prime positive regression candidate given his FIP is a career low, and an all star outfielder who seemingly carries the antithesis of a Joey Gallo approach at the plate. This was all done without giving up any of the top 4 prospects in the Yankees organization, according to MLB.com. The Yankees roster is undoubtedly better today than when they were on pace for 116 wins in May. In fact, the only team that made a bigger effort to improve at the deadline was San Diego. (Seattle struck big in Castillo, but gave up enough ammunition that they couldn’t upgrade elsewhere.)
So – if the Yankees are so much better today, why aren’t they winning like they were in April and May? First of all, the Yankees were almost certainly overperforming in the first 2.5 months of the season. A team that won 92 games in 2021 all of a sudden are a 116 win team after swapping Gio Urshela , Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez for Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Trevino? That doesn’t check out.
Similarly, the Yankees are underperforming currently. As perfectly stated by Katie Sharp on the August 9th episode of Jomboy Media’s Talkin’ Yanks, over the Yankees last 44 games in which they are 21-23, they have actually outscored their opponents by 57 runs. This would give the Yankees an expected winning percentage of .617, 4th best in baseball during that span.
Even as the Yankees disappoint on the field, with no Stanton or Rizzo in the lineup, they are better than their recent record states.
Ladies and gentlemen, that’s called statistical regression.
I don’t mean to write this in blind support of Yankees’ decision-making. I’m in favor of Oswald Peraza starting over Kiner-Falefa. While I understand the Montgomery for Bader swap in a vacuum, I wasn’t supportive of the move given the new landscape of the MLB and AAA pitching depth after trading Sears, Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Medina, and losing Severino to the IL. I question if the offseason moves were the optimal approach to improving the team.
However, as we watch what’s truly shaping to be the dog days of summer in New York, I challenge other Yankee fans to not stress and not panic. While it isn’t pretty to watch the team’s current state of play, the moves the front office has made thus far and the cushion built during the first half of the season will make them ready for October. They have earned the grace to limp into the postseason, and while having home field advantage throughout a potential World Series run would be ideal, having the best roster possible during that time is the priority.
So from one Yankees fan to another, relax.